Dangote refinery in Lamu could reshape County politics

Former Lamu mayor Hassan Albeit has warned that the proposed Dangote refinery in Lamu could significantly change the county’s political landscape from the 2032 General Election.

Albeit argued that the project could attract thousands of workers from different parts of the country, potentially altering Lamu’s demographic composition and voting patterns.

He said the arrival of new residents could influence electoral outcomes as workers settle in the county and seek leaders they believe will protect their interests, particularly in employment opportunities.

“There will be an effect on the voting pattern in 2032. We could see a situation where Kalenjins, Luhyas, Luos or Kikuyus could contest and even win the Lamu governorship because of the number of people who will move there because of the project, and they will definitely vote there,” Albeit said.

The former mayor, who has declared his intention to contest for the Lamu Senate seat on an ODM ticket in the 2027 elections, compared the possible changes to Nairobi, saying its political demographics had shifted over time.

He warned that the Bajuni community in Lamu could face similar changes if local residents failed to prepare for the anticipated impact of major investments.

Albeit urged Lamu residents, including members of the Muslim community and local businesspeople, to continue supporting local leaders.

“The Muslims, the rich people and the residents of Lamu should support their own,” he said.

Also Read: Lamu Oil Refinery: Leaders demand jobs ahead of Dangote investment

The former mayor also expressed concern that disagreements among opposition leaders could undermine efforts to build a united political front against President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.

He said the opposition had initially appeared united under the “Linda Mwananchi” campaign but argued that emerging divisions were shifting attention towards individual political interests, financial resources and voting strength.

“Sifuna started well with the words ‘Linda Mwananchi’, where every community and all Kenyans were included regardless of their numbers. But now Gachagua has come with another version, showing that it is purely about business, how much money do you have and how many votes will you bring for them to support you,” Albeit said.

He warned that opposition leaders who chose to contest under separate political parties could split their support and make it difficult to defeat Ruto.

Albeit predicted that Ruto could emerge as the leading candidate without securing the constitutional threshold required to win the presidency in the first round.

“If they separate and every leader vies under their own political party, there is a possibility Ruto will not get the required 50-plus-one, but he will still be number one. In that case, the election will go to a runoff between the first and second candidates, and Ruto will win again,” he said.

He said the opposition’s ability to maintain unity would be a major factor in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.